How I learned to love the transfer portal and NIL
Just kidding. I don't really. But they're here to stay, so let's at least put both in context.
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The portal’s give and take
College basketball crowned a champion two weeks ago, but the sport’s been buzzing for weeks because of the transfer portal. Throw in NIL’s impact, and it’s a wild ride.
Take Monday’s news about Tyrese Hunter.
The Iowa State freshman point guard was marvelous during their run to the Sweet 16, and seemed poised to be the focal point of next year’s team. But he’s entering the transfer portal, reportedly because he’ll be able to better monetize NIL deals on another campus.
This stinks for Iowa State. Bouncing back from a 2-22 season to a spot in the Sweet 16 to now watching your future depart puts is a tough thing to reconcile. But if any program understands the portal’s impact, it’s Iowa State.1
Indeed, most of the reaction Monday didn’t center on Hunter, but how messy the transfer portal is right now. Here’s one.
Disruption isn’t just for supply chains for innovative technology. It’s in college sports.
It used to be that if an athlete wanted to transfer, they had to sit a year, which dampened potential moves.2 Nevermind that college basketball and college football have long been the only NCAA sports that used this method. The portal is here to stay. NIL is here to stay. Programs are figuring out how to navigate both, not to mention additional wrinkles from the last two years.3
And that goes for everyone. The general POV is that the transfer portal crushes mid-major teams. But per Jeff Goodman, only a dozen high-major programs haven’t had a transfer this year.
Whether the NCAA eventually acts like a forward-thinking governing body and implements some NIL/portal restrictions (such as restrictions so the Blueblood programs can’t just poach any player thanks to NIL income) remains to the seen. Anything substantial doesn’t seem likely for 2022-23.
To get a sense of what players are evaluating, take this rundown of the earning potential for Illinois big man Kofi Cockburn. Scott Richey of the News-Gazette explains how the Illini Guardians, a not-for-profit organization launched to help players maximize NIL opportunities, could ensure Cockburn makes at least $500,000 via NIL deals. That’s comparable to a two-way NBA contract he’s make as a second-round pick, and substantially more than the G-League or an overseas deal would provide. (That two-way contract isn’t guaranteed, either.)
This is the new reality for college players, not only in men’s hoops, but in football and maybe most importantly in women’s hoops, where the NIL deals can be most lucrative for the top players. This is a good thing for players, which in turn, can be a good thing for the game as long as programs have booster backing, a willingness to embrace opportunities for the players4 and a culture that can withstand an untimely transfer.
In the meantime, it’ll be another few days of portal madness (the deadline to enter the portal and be eligible for next season is May 1) and NBA Draft evaluations (deadline to declare for the draft is April 24). Here’s a list of players who have yet to settle on a new school for 2022-23, and who could make the biggest impact.
The big men on campus
OK, so what about the guys who are staying put?
TCU guard Mike Miles initially was headed to the NBA, but will be back for his junior year, making the Horned Frogs one of the Big 12 favorites and a potential Top 15 team. They return all five starters and could snag another impact player in the transfer portal.
Just as big, UCLA forward Jamie Jaquez Jr. announced he’ll be back for his senior season, ensuring the Bruins have experience to pair with a couple of impact freshmen. They’re a potential Top 10 team.
Less noticeable, but potentially more important to the roster was Florida big man Colin Castleton announcing his return. He was the Gators’ most important player in 2021-22 and provides new coach Todd Golden with stability.
But the biggest news for returning players was North Carolina big man Armando Bacot, who pretty much locked in the Heels as a Top 10 team.
There’s a good chance Illinois’ Kofi Cockburn, Gonzaga’s Drew Timme and Kentucky’s Oscar Tshiebwe follow suit and return to school. Like Bacot, Castleton and other post players, they’re no longer first-round locks in the NBA draft. But NIL ensures they can stay in school and still make a fair amount of money.
Is this the new college basketball reality? A return to where big men rule the college game because they stay put? If this is an unintended result of the portal, NIL and how the NBA is now played, I’m here for it.
Not so Fantastic?
Didn’t get enough hand-wringing with the portal? Let’s try Harry Potter.
The newest movie installment, Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore, grossed $43 million at the domestic box office over the weekend. That’s down 30% from the previous movie’s opening in 2018. Couple that with bad PR for J.K. Rowling, Johnny Depp, and others associated with the movies, and it’s a spate of what’s going to happen to Harry Potter stories.
Here’s what going to happen: They’ll keep earning fans.
The Harry Potter series is 25 years old, but sales of the book series increased during COVID. That alone should cement its future, but there’s plenty of fondness for the movie series (a staple on HBO Max and Peacock), not to mention the recent reunion special. Is the series the behemoth it once was? No. But what is? The Secrets of Dumbledore isn’t a massive hit in the U.S.5, but it’s going to clear $500M worldwide, making it a reasonable return. Maybe there won’t be two more movies, but I’d guess there’s still one more in the bag.
Not everything is hit or a bomb. There’s plenty of room for mixed results, which is where this new movie lands. But given the Harry Potter books have sold 400M copies worldwide — behind only the Bible, Mao Tse-Tung quotes and the Quran — there’s more that’ll be done with this IP.
The Fast Break
Stuff to read as you binge watch Seasons 1 & 2 of Barry.
Kentucky’s Shaedon Sharpe didn’t play this season, but he’s entering the NBA Draft. He’s an expected lottery pick.
Memphis lost two big names: Emoni Bates will transfer (or potentially go to the NBA’s G-League), while Jalen Duren is entering the NBA Draft. How does Penny Hardaway adjust?
There’s a third key transfer from Memphis though: Earl Timberlake is headed to Bryant, an example of the portal benefitting a small school.
Arizona’s Christian Koloko is off to the NBA as a likely late first-round pick.
Gonzaga wing Julian Strawther is testing the NBA Draft waters. I’m guessing he returns to Spokane.
The “Gonzaga to the Big East” rumors ran wild last week. But Matt Norlander wrote about a scenario that actually could happen.
Here’s a reminder of how the NCAA treats men’s and women’s basketball differently — with significant ramifications.
Here’s another that doesn’t have the same outcome, but it’s just as significant: NCAA President Mark Emmert has attended the men’s Final Four every year, but twice at the women’s since 2011.
Incredible graphic on the top scorers from inside 30 feet this season in college hoops. Izaiah Brockington has that long 2 on lockdown.
Bashir Mason knows he has “big, big shoes to fill” as the new head coach at Saint Peter’s. Can you capture lightning in a bottle twice?
Maybe Mitch Lightfoot has a career as a tight end with hands like this.
The Cyclones’ turnaround consisted of five transfers — Izaiah Brockington, Gabe Kalscheur, Caleb Grill, Aljaz Kunc and Tristan Enaruna — who paired with Hunter and returning center George Conditt.
There was transfer exemptions made, but usually, a player sat for a season.
Remember, the NCAA granted an extra year of eligibility to anyone who wanted it and allowed roster sizes to grow accordingly. For 2022-23, roster are back to the normal 13-scholarship limit. Plus, you can’t just transfer every season. Two-time transfers now need to apply for a waiver, which means players must carefully evaluate any decisions.
Here’s how Kansas did that.
Tell that to the Miller kids, who have loved every minute of the new movies and were delighted to see Dumbledore on opening night.