Arkansas apparently the team to beat in '23
It's really, really early, but Hogs are consensus pick when it comes to projections for next season
Programming note: Only 339 days until Selection Sunday. So except to see slightly less college basketball content on Beyond the Arc for the next few months. Probably.
Let the arguments begin!
Once college basketball ends, that means four things: News about the transfer portal, updates on coaching changes, NBA Draft chatter, and Way Too Early Projections for the 2022-23 season.
Is one of those things a waste of time in April? Sure. Until we learn more about who’s playing where, who’s coaching where, and who’s going pro, the projections make as much sense as editing Tweets. But they’re fun fodder for the spring, and are mostly informed, thoughtful analysis from college hoops experts.1
So, congratulations to … Arkansas!
The Hogs, fresh off a trip to the Elite Eight and a banner recruiting haul, are the consensus No. 1 team. (Yes, in April. Don’t hang the banner yet. Unless you’re Knicks Reddit.) They’re atop five of the 11 early projections shown below and are no lower than No. 6.
And these rankings were before Arkansas added a 5-star transfer and two 4-star transfers in the last two days.
After Arkansas, it’s a compilation of programs you’d expect.2
However, there are some nuggets.
Houston is Rodney Dangerfield. Only one site tabbed the Cougars as No. 1, yet they’ll return two key players who missed most of the 2021-22 season, and some added scoring punch for perhaps the best system in college hoops. Houston’s won 60 games the last two seasons. They’ll be a Top 5 team all season.
There’s faith that the usual suspects — Kentucky, UCLA, Duke, Kansas, Villanova — figure out how to manage key departures, but I’ll be most interested in which team turns out to be 2021-22 Arizona. The squad that flies under the radar and ends up as a Top 10 team. Maybe Indiana?3
TCU is the biggest variable. Jamie Dixon’s team doesn’t appear on four lists, but range anywhere from 11 to 25. They peaked ate with wins over Kansas and Texas Tech, then pushed Arizona to OT in the Round of 32. Point guard Mike Miles is gone, but four other starters should return. They’ll defend, but can they score?
Apparently David Roddy will be back at Colorado State. The MWC Player of the Year will test the NBA Draft waters, and is slated as first-round pick. Without Roddy, this is the wrong Mountain West team to place in a preseason Top 25.4
Creighton’s the sexy pick. Not hard to justify given the Jays dealt with key injuries late in the season and pushed national champion Kansas in the Round of 32. Still, they lose two starters and the health of Ryan Nembhard and Ryan Kalkbrenner will be worth monitoring.
That’s also reflected in early projections from Barttorvick.com, which has the the Jays ranked 32 — which also is ahead of TCU (36).
The only thing I know for sure? These rankings will change roughly 297 times over the next five months.
About that loose floorboard
North Carolina center Armando Bacot played on a bum ankle Monday, logged yet another double-double, but wasn’t in for the final moments after aggravating his ankle injury on a drive to the basket.
Here’s the fun part. Replays on social media showed the floorboard apparently buckle under Bacot, implying it was loose and factored into the injury.
The manufacturer of the court said that’s just some Twitter bullshit (in so many words).
“The court's absorption characteristics are by design, and there were no loose floorboards or panels within the court, as confirmed by an expert technician who was present at every game of the men's Final Four to ensure the quality and safety of the floor,” Jeff Krejsa, vice president of marketing and strategy for Connor Sports, told ESPN.
Look, it’s 2022. What am I going to do, believe my own eyes or the guy who ran tests and said the floor actually did what it’s supposed to do?
Look, ankle injuries happen all time. The floor didn’t cause Caleb Love to roll his ankle in the second half. And it sure didn’t cause Bacot to roll his again. It’s just bad injury luck. UNC had plenty of it on Monday.
The Fast Break
News you can use as you watch Tiger Woods highlights
Kentucky freshman TyTy Washington will enter the NBA Draft (and stay in it; he’s hiring an agent), while freshman forward Bryce Hopkins is hitting the transfer portal. TyTy was expected, but the Hopkins probably stings a bit.
Tennessee freshman Kennedy Chandler also is also headed to the draft.
The 2022 Maui Invitational is loaded. Kansas, Gonzaga, UCLA, Purdue, Tennessee, Marquette, Syracuse and Chaminade. Five of those will be in the preseason Top 25.
Steve Lavin, after a second stint as a college basketball broadcaster, is back for his third head-coaching stint, this time at San Diego. He’s 237-150 during tenures at UCLA and St. John’s with five trips to the Sweet 16, but none since 2002.
The all-time college basketball wins graphic is now updated through the 2021-22 season. Love these things.
The Senate confirmed Ketanji Brown Jackson on Thursday, 53-47, making her the first Black woman elected to the Supreme Court. Will she get some run on the “highest court in the land?” I haven’t seen much on her hoops game.
Except for Mark Titus. This is a perfect projection
Yes, there 24/7 doesn’t list teams for 24 and 25. Their call.
The Hoosiers probably return all five starters from a Top 25 defense, including a possible All-American in Trayce Jackson-Davis. If their perimeter shooting hits the D-I average, expect a big offensive leap.
That’s San Diego State.